- Why does Beijing express its concern about possible rapprochement of Russia and the USA?

- Today China is a unified powerful state, the second largest economy of the world with the world’s third largest nuclear missile. With Xi Jinping’s coming to power, China abandoned its passive foreign policy, bequeathed by Deng Xiaoping, who believed that “we should keep a low profile, build up our strength and wait for a good time”.

Now China is actively conducting its foreign policy and would hardly depend on the nature of Russian-American relations.

Beijing carries out a policy aimed at great revival of the Chinese nation. Anything that meets this objective is good, anything otherwise is bad. Judging by the conversation of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, there is complete trust between the countries. By the way, Sergei Lavrov, Head of the Russian MFA immediately informed his Chinese colleague Wang Yi about the results of the meeting with the Americans in Riyadh. So, there is no hidden agenda whatsoever in our relations with China and there will be none.

- Do you think a new “Yalta”, if it happens, could not take place without China’s participation?

- Why would anyone need a new “Yalta”? Why pour new wine into old barrels? Why should it be the triangle of Russia-China- USA? Where, I beg to ask, are India, Brazil, BRICS, SCO?

The “New Yalta” formula has been conceived by journalists or political pundits. But I do not believe this is what Xi, Putin or Trump think about, they have other geometrical constructions.

As for the Chinese, they put more trust into bilateral, and not multilateral relations. The Chinese leader has his own foreign policy concept. It is called “New relations of great powers”. He made this concept public back in 2013. Right after his visit to Moscow, Xi Jinping went to the USA, where he presented this concept to Barack Obama. The concept envisions equality of great powers. At the time it was stated that the PRC is equal to the USA.

Obama dismissed the theory, but then it was implemented in the relations of Beijing with Moscow. And now the Chinese are proposing this concept to the new US Administration, though I doubt that Trump would accept it.

- Recently Trump has imposed more tariffs on Chinese goods. Will he continue with the escalation in their relations with Beijing?

- Trump will try pushing various buttons both in the Russian-American and in the American-Chinese relations. This will be a real roller coaster – up and down again and again. Even if now things are going up for us, this does not mean there won’t be a plunge later. Moreover, if relations with the Chinese are now “down”, it does not mean they will not go “up” later on.

Look at who surrounds Trump. Elon Musk and Cyrus Vance represent interests of the American space industry and the Silicone Valley, which are eager to compete with the Chinese in science and technology, but not in sanctions and military bases.

America has accelerated the already inevitable process of Russia and China coming closer together by its trade and technology sanctions, military pressure in the name of “containment”. But after the four years of the first term of Trump and the four years of Biden, the USA have failed to achieve their goals. Washington has hit the Kremlin Wall and the Great Wall of China. One could try to breach these walls only through a nuclear war, which is unacceptable for “peacemaker” Trump. Let’s hope that the second term of Trump will be dedicated to ramping down this futile confrontation and focused on the science and technology track. 

The course of the US President will keep on changing both tactically and strategically. This will be very tough competition. But if the American plans to “leave the Russian economy in tatters” ended with our release of Oreshnik, then the American plans to deny chips to China and to suppress artificial intelligence development ended with the release of DeepSeek (a new generation neural network, developed for instant analysis of texts, images and audio).

- Some experts claim that the Chinese economy has “slumped”, meaning that it has not grown as fast as planned by the Communist Party and this is allegedly a wake –up call for looming crisis issues. Would you agree with this?

- The real question here is who is saying this? Essentially, here is the current situation in the PRC. The manufacturing sector of China (corporations with annual earnings of over 20 million yuan) has grown by 6,1% over the year. This includes equipment manufacturing growing by 7,7 %, high tech manufacturing – by 8,9%. For the second year in a row, Chinese factories jointly produce more than 30 million cars. In 2024 they made 31,28 million cars, which is 3,7% more than in 2023.

The service sector of China has grown by 5%, retail sales of consumer goods – by 3,5%. The segment of household appliances and electronics has shot up by 12,3%. The total volume of retail sales is at 4,88 trillion yuan (679,81 billion dollars).

It is notable that the Chinese catering industry has received even more money over the year - 5,5 trillion yuan (776,2 billion dollars), growing by 5,3%. The capital investments (exclusive of rural households) rose by 3,2 %, amounting to 5,14 trillion yuan (716,03 billion dollars) total. 

The foreign trade of China in 2024 rose by 5%, making a historic record, with the total export and import volume climbing up to 43,85 trillion yuan (5,98 trillion dollars). Now there is a record trade surplus of almost 1 trillion dollars.

All the data points out that despite comments by Western “mudslingers”, the Chinese economy is on very firm ground and continues setting new records. And even critics admit that in 2025 China is expected to recover those indicators that have “slumped”. All of this suggests that “major issues of the Chinese economy” are first and foremost just rumors, fanned by a traditional “war of words” between the USA and China.

- Should China be wary of stronger American economic sanctions?

- The sanctions of the USA versus the PRC are a double-edged sword. China responded to these sanctions back at the start of the trade war in 2018, and ultimately the volume of the bilateral trade slid insignificantly by the end of Biden’s term — by 680 billion dollars.

Trump is starting up a new offensive. The first sanctions have already been announced, China has responded in kind. China’s strong position has been recently demonstrated in the incident with the US Mail. The latter announced a ban on packages from the PRC, but the ban held on for one day only and was canceled.

The USA receives 1 million packages a day from the PRC. These support living standards of millions of American voters. It is highly likely that the trade war will go on, but the key containment activities against China will unfold in the science and technology area.

- Why is there no backlash of the official Beijing to the Washington statements on expelling Chinese players from the Panama Canal area?

- The Panamanian match in the “Great Game” of America and China is not over yet. It is unlikely that Beijing would give up its positions in this key point without a fight. For China, this is as crucial as the Strait of Malacca, the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. The USA aim at holding the Chinese by the throat. But they have alternative routes for continuous cargo delivery – these are overland routes of the “Belt and Road” in Eurasia. These are roads through Russia — railway, highway and air routes. This also includes the Northern Sea Route, where Moscow granted access to Beijing after certain considerations.

- Does China have its own ambitions in the Arctic Region?

- No, it does not, for now the Chinese icebreaker construction program is no competition for the Russian icebreaker fleet. By the way, China largely shares the views of the West, which demands “internationalization” of the Northern Sea Route from Russia, simply put, complete or partial relinquishment by Russia of its control over the NSR. The reasons for this are quite simple. China, just like other countries, says that the rate for foreign vessel escort through Russian ice-covered waters is too high, meaning that Russia has to reduce the rate or allow “other” international players to operate in its exclusive economic zone. 

- What are likely risks for the Russian side?

- China, when its national interests and raw material and service prices are concerned, is capable of pushing its interests through in future negotiations with Russia. Or it could get a concession agreement on joint use of the NSR, it would be prepared to ensure a quite favorable rate for escorting its vessels from the Far East to the Northern Europe. There is always room for negotiation!

- President Trump, following his recent talks in Washington with the Prime-Minister Narendra Modi, said that the US would increase its military supplies to India “by many billions of dollars”, and that India will ultimately get F-35 fifth generation fighter jets. It appears that the deal with Russia is at risk?

- If Vikram Misri, first deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India, is to be believed, “Indians have not yet made a final decision and intend to negotiate with Trump”.

New Delhi already has offers for supply of modern weapons from France, from which India has already purchased several dozens of multi-purpose Rafale fighter jets. And of course, there is Russia – India’s Air Force, which is mostly equipped with Soviet fighter jets. Today Moscow is offering to New Delhi its SU-57E multi-purpose fifth generation fighter jet, claiming that it is better than the American F-35. To cut the long story short, India will choose, be picky, drive down prices and put forward conditions for equipment manufacturing at its own plants with maximum localization level.

However, real agreements were reached during the talks of Trump and Modi on expanding military cooperation and joint manufacturing of weapons. The final statement on the negotiations says that this year India will buy from the USA its Javelin antitank missile system and Stryker armored personnel carriers, well-known by their performance in military operations in Ukraine. It is suggested to set up joint production of these systems in Indian factories. Purchases of six American P-81 aircraft for maritime patrolling are also expected.

It is known that since 2008 India has bought weapons from the USA for over 20 billion dollars. Last year, in particular, it announced of purchasing 30 large American MQ-9B SeaGuardian and SkyGuardian reconnaissance drones.

However, for now the US still remains a rather limited supplier of weapons for India, Washington previously evaded cooperation with the country in this area, having particular concerns about possible technology leaks to unfriendly countries. Now these restrictions are lifted and Trump is obviously quite enthusiastic about this.

- Recently Beijing has hosted the so-called “Chinese Billionaire Symposium”. Could you please tell us about it?  

- This was a convention of the richest people of China, dedicated to non-government corporations. Chairman Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the meeting.

Official media have yet to report on the content of the speech of the country’s leader, but The South China Morning Post newspaper from Hong Kong highlighted a promise of “support to the entrepreneurial class by the state under stronger pressure of headwinds”.

Today, according to Forbes magazine, there are 365 billionaires in China (excluding Hong Kong and Taiwan).

After the ХХ Congress of the CPC (October 2022) many “excessively rich people” started getting dark looks, and some even got targets on their backs. The well-known Jack Ma stopped appearing on TV and on the front pages of publications. Alibaba, a creation of his, underwent a not so voluntary readjustment. Other private business giants were accused of cartel agreements and started getting insistent recommendations to donate to charity funds and to financial resources of less developed provinces.

Billionaires and millionaires began moving abroad and reduced their investment activities. The top of the Communist party realized that they had gone over the speed limit on the way to socialism, guided by “overall prosperity” slogan and hit the brakes. After the Plenum of the CPC Central Committee in last July, the capitalist sector of the “China-specific socialism” was fully exonerated.

This sector, according to unofficial estimates, amounts to 60% of the PRC’s GDP and 60% of taxes, provides 80% of jobs.

- What are the current trade and economic relations between two capitals – Moscow and Beijing?

-  The relations of the metropolitan cities are booming at all levels. From January to September 2024 bilateral trade figures between the city of Moscow and China displayed an overall increase of 7,7%. At the same time the share of the capital city in the total turnover volume between the countries is over 40%.

Today China accounts for more than 7% of the volume of non-energy exports of the Russian capital. The country imports Moscow’s machine building products, instrumentation engineering products, healthcare equipment, food products and other goods.

According to Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin, the Russian capital pays key attention to joint industrial projects. Moscow companies have entered into agreements with Chinese bus and vending machine makers to supply their solutions, a pharmaceutical company has opened a subsidiary company in the PRC to expand cooperation.

It is no secret that Chinese partners are helping Moscow develop its urban infrastructure, primarily in metro construction. Since 2023 we have been developing together with Beijing our UrbanTransportData – an international analytical platform for collection, analysis, visualization and publication or transport indicators for major metropolitan cities.

This was discussed during the talks in Beijing by the mayors of the two cities - Sergei Sobyanin and Yin Yong. The mayors signed a Program for cooperation between the Government of Moscow and the People’s Government of Beijing up to 2026.

Sergei KRON.