Alexander Lukin: "The Beijing summit showed that China still needs Russian fuel"

- The New York Times wrote that the Russian President's trip to China was not 'breakthrough' but 'purely ritualistic'. Would you agree with this?

- I think that in the history of Russian-Chinese summits, one can find meetings between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping where truly breakthrough decisions were made—for instance, on pipelines or the construction of railway mainlines. Remember the volatile global reaction sparked by the signing of the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China in Moscow. As for the past summit, the point here is that relations between our countries today are at such a high level that it is quite difficult to make any breakthrough decisions.

As is known, in May 2026, Vladimir Putin was accompanied in China by a large Russian delegation, which included five deputy prime ministers, eight federal ministers, as well as the heads of several state corporations and Russian regions. More than 40 agreements were signed on the sidelines of the summit. This indicates that Vladimir Putin's recent visit was a continuation of the current line of cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, rather than a qualitative leap forward. Rather, it was a meeting of long-time friends to synchronize political watches.

 - Still, which of the documents signed in Beijing would you especially emphasize?

- In the political sphere, this is the Joint Declaration on the Promotion of a Multipolar World and the Establishment of a New International Order. Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov rightfully called this document "conceptual", thereby emphasizing its importance for the foreign policy of both countries.

The Joint Declaration, in particular, notes that "attempts by a number of states to single-handedly manage world affairs in the spirit of colonialism have collapsed," but the situation in the world is becoming more complex and there is a danger of returning to the "law of the jungle".

Russia and China called on the international community to adhere to the principle of improving the global governance system and prevent the weakening of the UN. “The security of one state cannot be ensured at the expense of the security of another,” Moscow and Beijing believe. Putin and Xi Jinping emphasize that no single state in the world should control international affairs or dictate the destinies of other countries. “Hegemony in the world is unacceptable and must be prohibited,” the Declaration states.

The leaders of the two nations called on the global community to reject bloc confrontation and to oppose the expansion of military alliances, as well as the conduct of 'hybrid' and 'proxy' wars. Moscow and Beijing will continue working toward shaping a multipolar world and more equitable international relations.

In my view, the adoption of the Declaration on the Promotion of a Multipolar World and the Establishment of a New International Order is, so to speak, an attempt to present Russia and China's own new agenda, which at the same time is in no way directed against the West. Although until now, various concepts of international relations have been formulated precisely by the West. Here, however, we see that the Declaration is a collaborative effort between Moscow and Beijing.

At the same time, it must be said that the multipolar world—or the polycentric world, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calls it—is still in its formative stage, meaning it has not yet fully taken shape. However, the Russian-Chinese Declaration clearly shows that things are moving in that direction. This document emphasizes a civilizational approach to the formation of a multipolar world. Russia, China, and certain other countries are viewed as distinct civilizations that must find ways to cooperate and coexist in peace, without any single civilization dominating another. This, in turn, is directed against the efforts of certain Western states to dictate their own rules of the game in global politics and economics. 

Along with the joint Declaration, Putin and Xi extended the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation. The Russian President noted that Russian-Chinese relations have reached an unprecedented level and do not depend on the global situation.

Among the agreements signed in Beijing, I would also highlight the Memorandum of Cooperation in the field of controlled thermonuclear fusion. Russia and China are recognized world leaders in this area, implementing large-scale national programs and jointly participating in the international experimental project to build a thermonuclear reactor (ITER). As a reminder, 33 states are participating in the project: the European Union countries, India, China, South Korea, Russia, the USA, and Japan.

- Aleksander Vladimirovich, why, in your opinion, have the parties once again failed to reach an agreement on the implementation of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline construction project? 

- During Putin's previous visit to the PRC in September 2025, Gazprom and CNPC signed a binding memorandum on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2, a main gas pipeline with a design capacity of up to 50 billion cubic meters per year. The route is intended to connect Russian gas fields with China through the territory of Mongolia.

At the recent talks in Beijing, the parties confirmed that the main "parameters of mutual understanding" regarding the project are in place, and according to Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for the President of the Russian Federation, "only the nuances remain to be negotiated." However, one thing is clear: there is still no precise timeline for the implementation of the Power of Siberia 2 project, even though China's demand for Russian fuel remains steady.

The reason Beijing is delaying the decision on construction may lie in its desire to bargain for a more favorable price on the "blue fuel," but the current conditions are not working in China's favor. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the demand for Russian energy resources has increased, as has their price, and therefore significant discounts from Russia are unlikely to be achieved.

Generally, the price of Russian gas for China is confidential information, and no one will give you a specific figure. Naturally, the Chinese strive to buy gas at a cheaper price than on the global market. Beijing will not agree to a deal at a loss just because it has a friend like Russia.

Meanwhile, construction of the gas pipeline has not even begun. Among the unresolved issues are where it will run and who will pay for its construction. Of course, it is necessary to negotiate and look for compromises. However, during the implementation of the "Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean" oil pipeline project, it took the parties more than 10 years to resolve all issues.

The construction project of the "Power of Siberia – 2" gas pipeline is a promising endeavor. After all, it is no secret that coal remains the main energy source for China. This means that under any circumstances, the Chinese will need gas. Everything depends on how the PRC's economy develops in the future. Naturally, if its growth rates slow down, Beijing will require fewer energy sources.

- Is it true that in 2025 the Russia-China trade turnover fell by 6,8% versus 2024 and amounted to $228 billion? Could this situation happen again this year?

- I will answer the second question right away. During January–April 2026, the trade turnover between the two countries grew beyond all expectations, by approximately 20%. According to the First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Denis Manturov, Putin's visit to China should give momentum to the two countries' projects totaling $200 billion—in metallurgy, mechanical engineering, timber industry, agricultural sector, transport and logistics sphere, and trade.

One of the main reasons for the "slump" is that the Russian market's demand for Chinese goods decreased in 2025. Yes, over the past three years, our trade has nearly doubled, increasing by $100 billion. However, after such rapid growth, a natural correction occurs. The gradual saturation of the Russian market with products from Chinese companies is leading to a decline in the volume of new shipments. In particular, this happened with Chinese cars, the deliveries of which dropped by 55% this past January–September.

By 2025, an unfavorable situation had also developed in China, with economic growth averaging around 5%, a figure much lower than planned; before the pandemic, the PRC's economy grew by 10% or more each year.

It is impossible not to note another factor, this time a subjective one: the persisting impact of Western sanctions. The latest example is Washington’s announced sanctions against major Russian oil companies and Brussels’ inclusion of several Chinese enterprises in its 19th package. This can be interpreted as an attempt by the West to increase pressure on Moscow and Beijing, while simultaneously gaining additional leverage in trade negotiations with the PRC.

- How was the conflict in Ukraine approached during the negotiations?

- I can only assume that the leaders of the two countries touched upon the topic of the Ukrainian crisis during the negotiations. Nevertheless, in a joint statement, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping pointed out the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian conflict. They also emphasized that they support all efforts that “help establish a long-term and sustainable peace in Ukraine”.

Putin specifically noted that China plays a constructive role in resolving the crisis; however, no information regarding the future of the negotiations or concrete results of Chinese mediation was reported during the summit.

We must not forget that back in 2023, the Chinese leadership formulated 12 principles for a settlement, which Beijing proposed to Moscow and Kiev. Their essence boils down to the need to respect international law and the UN Charter. Furthermore, Beijing believes that one's security cannot be built at the expense of another party. Russia fully agrees with this principle, as it was reflected in the Joint Declaration on the Promotion of a Multipolar World and the Establishment of a New International Order, adopted following the May summit in Beijing.

I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that since 1980, China has not participated in any military operations or overseas military conflicts, except for those authorized by the UN. At best, the PRC acts as a mediator in negotiations, as was the case with Iran and Saudi Arabia. China managed to reconcile the conflicting parties back then, resulting in them signing a peace agreement in 2023.

Beijing never imposes its rules or positions on other countries. It is ready to help resolve any conflict if requested.

Two years ago, the Chinese were ready to act as a mediator in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. A special representative was even appointed—Li Hui, the former Ambassador of the PRC to Russia. This diplomat visited Moscow and Beijing several times with a peacekeeping mission.

- Apart from joint statements and declarations, the most important outcome of the summit was probably the decision to extend the mutual visa-free regime until the end of 2027 …

- Few doubted that such an agreement would be adopted. However, it is highly symbolic that this time the leaders of the two countries announced the visa-free regime jointly and following a friendly meeting.

Beijing has decided to extend the visa-free regime for our citizens until December 31, 2027. Now, Russian citizens with passports can enter China for tourism, business meetings, visiting relatives and friends, exchange programs, or transit for up to 30 days without obtaining an entry visa. 

Previously, the process of getting a permit stamp in a passport was much more complicated. One had to travel to the other side of Moscow, fill out application forms, and pay money. Now, you just get on a plane and fly to the Celestial Empire to enjoy your vacation.

The visa-free regime applies not only to Russian tourists but also to businesspeople. The only downside is that a Russian citizen still cannot work in China without a special permit—a work visa is required.

Sergei KRON.

*Photographs from the private archive of Alexander Lukin